Water crisis: The drought’s not to blame 

“That which should have been done, wasn’t.”  

This reporter heard this line from almost all sources with decades of experience in Namibia’s water-supply and -management divisions and in 25 years, by 2050, the shortfall supply in the central area will reach 76 million cubic metres. 

According to Piet Smit, the chairperson of the Upper Swakop Basin Management Committee, NamWater knew in 2011 that demand in the central area will exceed the available resources. In his presentation in September 2023 at the Namibia Scientific Society, Smit emphasised the need for a new resource. 

“The focus, each time, is to reduce consumption and not to increase supply.” 

The big issue is that surface water, managed by NamWater, is the primary source of water for the capital, at 75% of total water supply. 

There are lots of (expensive) plans in place but, the challenge of course is the lead time; even if plans are executed now. Medium-term plans were not executed so currently, Windhoek relies on the short-term plans – boreholes, which are fed by the all-important aquifer, and reclamation. The City knew that increased levels of pollution in the Goreangab catchment area demanded a new, more refined reclamation plant in the early 1990s. That was commissioned early in 2002 and since, demand has grown. In 2017 the City first unveiled its then N$1,1 billion plans for another new reclamation plant as a redress for its reliance on NamWater. And now, in 2024, Windhoek has finally sealed the deal with KfW Development Bank for roughly N$1,7 billion. Phase 1 for the new direct potable reclamation (DPR) plant will cost €50 million, roughly N$1 billion, with phase 2, the upgrading of the Gammams and Otjomuise plants, at €40 million. The City told Kosmos 94.1 News that phase 1 will be completed by 2029 and the second, by 2035.  

There is a point to consider – in times of drought, water consumption drops and when it drops, so too does the amount of water reaching reclamation and thus, the amount of available water recycled for use. 

The all-important aquifer, however, is an unknown. The City says: “Technical studies conducted to establish the Windhoek Managed Aquifer Recharge Scheme and assess the Windhoek aquifer as a water bank indicate a safe yield of 60 million cubic metres from the aquifer under full supply conditions. Over the preceding years, considerable financial resources have been invested to bank surface water in the Windhoek aquifer. Under the permitted supply of 8.5 million cubic meters per annum, this indicates a supply duration of approximately seven years. Given the current supply shortage and a more likely abstraction rate of 9.5 million cubic meters per annum going forward, the supply duration is expected to shorten by about a year, to six years. This estimate assumes that the aquifer was relatively full, though precise quantification is challenging due to the nature of groundwater sources. The current supply should be sustainable for approximately four to five more years, provided that water demand is reduced by more than 20%.” 

The aquifer was recharged with roughly 6 million cubic metres in the two preceding years, around 2.8 million cubic metres a year, at a cost of between N$80 and N$100 million a year. 

Smit told Kosmos 94.1 News Investigates that “… major concerns exist on whether the storage capacity [of the aquifer] will reduce due to depressurisation of fissures and other structures in the geology. Some of this could potentially be predicted by more geophysics, though the costs of these studies against the potential gains probably exclude it from current work to be done – once we have no option but to pump it to higher volumes, we’ll know the answers anyway and then will have to re-plan for future droughts.” 

According to Dieter Tolke, engineering technician for water demand at the City: “The Windhoek aquifer had boreholes of 100m to 200m deep. This was a problem since the aquifer was regularly abstracted to its limits and various boreholes ran dry. During the 2016 drought boreholes of up to 350m were developed. This provides a different dimension and challenge, and an unknown condition of the water availability. Only during 2019 were the new boreholes pumped for the first time substantially, to their capacity and to a greater depth, thus 2024 will be adding to the 2019 knowledge and experience. It is preferred not to pump at such depth due to enormous energy cost and operating complications.” 

The City has yet to ‘approve’ its mass campaign for water-saving measures, which, according to the CEO Moses Matyayi was to be launched in February this year. It also has yet to meet its weekly target of 20% for water-saving. 

The central dams are not performing well and are at around 11% of capacity, with water pumped from the Berg Aukas complex to Von Bach on a weekly basis. Hardap is closed for irrigation, Neckartal is unused with around 670 million cubic metres of water, and Otjivero is beyond dead capacity at around 2%. 

How did we get here? 

In mid-2016, then President Hage Geingob established the Cabinet Committee on Water Supply Security that also comprises of a Technical Committee of Experts (TCE). Pedro Maritz, a member of this team, confirmed that the 1974 Master Plan for water supply to the country, and the central area, included bringing Namibia’s share of the Okavango River to the Berg Aukas complex for delivery to the central area, as well as desalinated water from the coast. He says a “recently undertaken feasibility study has once again confirmed previous findings for either to link the supply system with the coast or to tap water from the Okavango. It should be understood that these are massive projects with big financial implications, but it can be confirmed that the TCE of the Cabinet Committee on Water Supply Security is at the moment working pursuing such.” 

We recall: “That which should have been done, wasn’t.” 

Kosmos 94.1 News Investigates understands that engineers are currently investigating the pipeline from the Okavango River and are in Grootfontein. 

Neckartal Dam  

The 1974 Master Plan includes several options, including pumping water from Namibia’s most southern dam Neckartal, through to Von Bach. The cost is astronomical simply because is it uphill and includes more than 800km of pipeline. That would make the water more expensive that desal water. Most experts agree… the pipeline from the Okavango River to the Berg Aukas complex and desalinated water from the coast to the central region are the most practical.  

The most important element? Cost.  

There are some who believe that desal is cost-prohibitive while others say desalinated water removes rain from the equation and provides a guaranteed resource. 

The bottom line? Neckartal, at a price tag of N$5.7 billion, under the instruction of then-president Hifikepunye Pohamba, should never have happened. According to some, the cost alone of clearing rocky, mountainous areas for planting in an environment that is hot and dry, limits any plans before they start. The evaporation rate in the area is 25 times higher than the rainfall. Resettling small-scale producers for agricultural production further cripples the project. One source told Kosmos 94.1 News Investigates that “you will never pay back the cost of the dam, not in 100 years”. 

“Neckartal is dead in the water. With water which will only become more saline the longer it takes to use it.” 

Hydrologist Frank Bockmuhl, in a 2009 report, indicated the importance of flow in the Fish River, downstream of the Neckartal Dam, for agricultural boreholes. Without recharge, caused by the dam wall, they run dry. To date, between 1.8 to 2 million cubic metres has been released weekly to assist the farmers downstream of the dam, and earlier, the hikers in the Fish River Canyon, in season. A hefty price tag for a white elephant. 

There are those who say that in September 2013, when Neckartal’s construction began, its final cost (up from N$2.8 billion to N$5.7 billion) could have paid for both the pipeline and related infrastructure from the Okavango to Berg Aukas, as well as desalination. 

At the 2024 Keetmanshoop Agri-expo at the end of October, minister Calle Schlettwein announced that consultants for the construction of the dam’s irrigation scheme, would be appointed early next year, seven years after the dam’s completion in October 2018. 

In September 2018, former President Sam Nujoma, on a visit to the dam, said that not only it is the project very exciting, but suggested a desalination plant should be constructed at Lüderitz, some 260km away, so that Neckartal, with a capacity of 880 million cubic metres, could be filled because “there would be low rainfall within the next three to four years in the country, according to scientists”. 

The dam overflowed in January 2021 after a good rainy season. 

Hardap Dam 

Moving on to Hardap Dam which has, for the first time since it was commissioned in 1963, shut off water supply to the irrigation scheme. Before the dam’s construction, Mariental was flooded in 1923 and 1934. Floods after the commissioning of the dam occurred in 1972, 1974, 1976, 2000, and 2006. The so-called 2006 Mariental-flood, when the sluices of Hardap Dam were opened, has severely limited the development of Mariental. Prior to 2006, the dam was allowed to fill to 100%, around 320 million cubic metres, and thereafter, maximum capacity was set at 70%. 

In that same year, the Mariental Flood Task Force was created with stakeholders, including the regional government, farmers, residents the municipality and NamWater. This body was to find solutions, control the expansion of the reed beds in the river downstream and more. According to minister Calle Schlettwein, the task force did not meet and it has now been reconfigured and will be chaired by NamWater. Schlettwein puts the blame for the shutting off of water supply to the farmers squarely on the limitation placed on Hardap Dam capacity to 70%. Hy says it is too conservative. There are options, including altering the dam wall and to utilise the water resource more effectively. But financial risks remain because the insurance sector has, in his words, “failed Mariental completely… they just withdrew”. According to NamWater: “Following severe flooding in Mariental, Cabinet appointed consultants to assess issues related to the Hardap Dam, including its hydrology and flood risks. One of the key findings was that the potential maximum flood in the Fish River downstream could be significantly higher than originally calculated when the dam was built. [Besides the limitation to the capacity of the dam] the Mariental Flood Task Force was established to address other issues, such as reed overgrowth in the Fish River, and to propose solutions to mitigate flood risks and maintain the dam’s integrity.” 

The task force too did not do what needed to be done. 

Karst/Berg Aukas Complex 

Let’s look at the Karst aquifer. In 2020 research published in Groundwater for Sustainable Development Ihemba and Esterhuyse found that in the Grootfontein-Tsumeb-Otavi Subterranean Water Control Area “groundwater use for irrigation has increased above the sustainable safe yield for the aquifers in this area”. Moving further south to the Aukas complex, challenges remain. 

Earlier in the year losses of up to 50% were recorded in the canal. NamWater’s pumps broke in November and December last year while Kombat supplied water for free from the flooded mine. But there is concern… it is a gentleman’s agreement so, if anything changes, we are back to square one. 

NamWater says that “although there is an agreement with Kombat to use their pumps, NamWater operates with its own pumps and motors at Berg Aukas, ensuring minimal reliance on Kombat. In the event that Kombat’s pumps fail or their operational capacity changes, NamWater can independently rely on its infrastructure, while still benefiting from the agreement with Trigon Mining, which supplies water through dewatering the mine.” 

Aukas pumps 1 050 cubic metres per hour of which NamWater gets around 700 after farmers and Grootfontein get what they need. Earlier in the year, the authorities said the losses on the 266km canal do not equate. The cost of pumping does not equate with what comes in.  

NamWater says the “Berg Aukas canal has seen water losses rise to approximately 50%, mostly due to the low volume conveyed through the canal, making fixed losses disproportionately high. NamWater has maintenance teams actively working to address these losses and restore the canal’s efficiency. Upgrades and repairs are ongoing to return water losses to the manageable 10% level, primarily due to evaporation.” 

Desalination 

In 2021, a feasibility study was performed by SLR Environmental Consulting for the line ministry, on the supply of desalinated water from the coast, along the route to Usakos, Karibib, Okahandja and to Windhoek. What became of this study and its results remains unknown but, construction on a desalination plant in Henties Bay will start early next year with commissioning expected in 2027 – for water supply to the Erongo Region. In June of this year, The Namibian reported that the Erongo Region draws water from two groundwater aquifers – the Omaruru Delta and the Kuiseb Delta near Walvis Bay, as well as Orano’s desalination plant but, these have reached the limit of sustainable supply, which currently stands at about 30 million cubic metres per year. The new plant will add 20 million cubic metres annually.  

On its website NamWater says that plans to build desalination plants along the Namibian coast date back to as early as 1996. Feasibility studies carried out revealed that desalinated water is a viable option to supply the customers of the coast whose demand for potable water has increased to more than the sustainable yield of the ground water resources. Orano’s plant has the short−term capacity of 20 million cubic meters per annum and can be increased over a medium to long−term capacity of up to 45 million cubic meters a year. 

“The Erongo Region’s water demands for the communities and the mines currently stand at about 20 million cubic meters per annum. Consultants have been appointed to commence with a KfW sponsored feasibility study to consider the future supply of water to the central coast and the central areas of Namibia and even as far as Botswana.” 

Yes. Botswana.  

On 25 February 2021, it was announced that Namibia and Botswana reaffirmed plans to jointly set up a multi-billion-dollar pipeline that bring desalinated water from the Namibian coast through the country to Botswana. 

New Era reported that in 2016, “President Hage Geingob revealed during a function at State House that the two governments were in discussions to pump desalinated water from the Atlantic Ocean through a pipeline that will stretch to Botswana. At the time, Geingob had said it is a regional project that will be commissioned between the Namibian and Botswana governments to tap water from the sea.” 

Desalinated water comes at a cost of roughly six times the current cost of surface water from NamWater. 

Desal water to the central region will increase costs massively. Currently, costs stand around N$25 per cubic metre which the City pays to NamWater. Desal water from the coast would currently cost around N$150 per cubic metre. This implies that the current cost of roughly N$650 million for annual water supply of 26 million cubic metres which is what the City currently uses, would increase to N$3.9 billion. And currently, the entire budget for the City stands at roughly N$5 billion a year – so desal water would make a serious dent in finances for a City the auditor-general Junias Kandjeke calls technically bankrupt. 

To date, Kosmos 94.1 News Investigates has no information on the progression of the supply of desalinated water to the central region of the country. 

Pollution 

In 2020, the agricultural ministry commissioned a study for the Swakop Upper-Omatako Basin’s Integrated Water Resources Management Plan. Included in this study was the impact of pollution. The central area is well-populated and the challenge is multi-dimensional and cross-sectoral. The mushrooming of informal settlements, industrial activity and more, has increased not only effluent but also open defecation. The 2023 census indicates that 20.3% of urban households have no access to a toilet and for Windhoek this is problematic because all the rivulets and natural water flow is directed to Swakoppoort Dam. This dam is in place to capture surplus run-off not captured by Von Bach Dam and also, to capture “return flows from the City of Windhoek for transfer to Von Bach”.  

In the management plan, SCE Consulting Engineers and Bigen Kuumba found that “poorly treated effluent from [the City] does reach Swakoppoort and presents a real risk of sterilising Swakoppoort Dam for transfers to Von Bach  
Dam”. The study finds that simulations show that lower yields from the three-dam system “eventually leads to the failure of the City of Windhoek water supply system”. 

In its findings the study found that the 2020 water supply system is constrained and although a number of different resources are used conjunctively, the margin of safety/resilience is low. “This presents a significant medium- to long-term water security risk.” 

NamWater tells Kosmos 94.1 News Investigates that a cross-sectoral approach is in place to reduce pollution from the City of Windhoek’s sanitation challenges and upstream industrial and agricultural activities. It says key efforts include improving wastewater treatment facilities, stricter enforcement of environmental regulations on industrial discharges, and monitoring programmes. This involves collaboration between NamWater, the City of Windhoek, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Water, and Land Reform to ensure a holistic and coordinated response to improving water quality. 

Pollution is exacerbated by the theft of manholes and more, allowing litter and effluent polluting groundwater resources. The City informed that “as long as there is a market for cast iron, manhole lids will be stolen and sold as scrap metal. To combat this, the City of Windhoek has changed the specifications of manhole lids to a composite material that is durable and has no economic value. This change has significantly reduced theft.  

“Open manholes pose risks to vehicles and pedestrians and encourage people to discard foreign objects into them, causing blockages and sewer overflows.” 

Decentralisation and limiting migration to Windhoek as a government objective would have offered some relief. Not just in terms of pollution but also water demand. 

Smit says that “strategic decentralisation is most definitely a large part of the answer, but it has to follow a proper strategic plan, based on a sensibly developed strategy – part of which is in the report by Bigen, as developed as part of the central area’s integrated water resource management plan. It … has to look at stopping pollution ending up in Swakoppoort Dam. The dam forms a barrier to release of pollutants, hence the build-up of pollutants being witnessed in it dam over time. The current pumping from Swakoppoort to Von Bach is also moving that pollution up-stream of the central area’s major surface water source and could be spread into the boreholes during the managed aquifer recharge of the Windhoek aquifer.” 

Tolke says that decentralisation for a capital and industrial city would be a water-supply economic benefit. “All major cities are located along major large rivers. Water is the single most important resource. Economic stability requires three conditions: Sufficient water resources; well-connected by transportation and conditions for industrial development. Windhoek has only one benefit as a capital city; it is located centrally.” 

Windhoek is growing and nothing will, or should, stop that. 

According to the City, the Augieias township in the Daan Viljoen area and the Ujams Industrial Development near Elisenheim are planned for the capital. “Further areas for development are also being planned to accommodate future growth and expansion.” 

More water consumption. Experts say that wet industries should not be permitted to set up shop in the central area. “They must be channelled elsewhere.” 

Savanna Beef and the new Kadhila poultry farm, both developed between Windhoek and Okahandja will employ their own water recycling, much like Namibia Poultry Industries. But, in the words of one expert, “they are a water-intensive industry by definition and should probably have done a better site selection study that properly included water supply risk”. 

Windhoek’s demand will continue to grow. Smit in his presentation last year September indicates that the resource capacity for the central area at maximum reaches roughly 34 million cubic metres per annum, but that by 2050 the shortfall will be 76 million cubic metres per annum. A new resource is needed. Urgently. 

Two of Namibia’s most prominent water resources – the Ohangwena and Stampriet aquifer also remain in the news. The second well field for the Ohangwena aquifer was drilled mid-year 2023 for water supply via boreholes while the Stampriet aquifer is in the news regarding proposed Russian exploration for uranium with fears of pollution but that is an investigation for another day. 

Namibia needs to take action. Climate change is predicted to increase temperatures across Southern Africa and by the 2030s, temperatures are expected to increase by more than 1°C from the 1980-99 average – impacting a range of environmental indicators including grazing, rainfall, soil quality and more. Rainfall is expected to decrease across much of Southern Africa, with a 5 to 20% decline by the end of the century. The southwestern region (Namibia) is expected to experience a strong drying signal. 

We’ll let the experts summarise the challenges, at least for the central area, as emphasised four years ago in the ministry’s 2020 study. 

There remains no clear or firm decision as to which long-term solution to the water supply challenge is preferred. It follows decision-making is dominated by a short-term two- to three-year supply scenario, depending on individual rain seasons and dam levels. Due to long project implementation lead times, the continuous delay to commit to a new bulk source of supply is risky and undermines establishment of a healthy resilience margin. 

The approval status of plans remains unclear. It follows that the plans retain a decision-information purpose, but do not clearly inform budget decisions and importantly, do not link to clearly defined implementation programmes. 

Several key plan documents are not in the public domain and therefore not formally accessible to stakeholder input. 

Plans are not explicitly linked to a resourcing framework. Municipal-level plans are largely unfunded and almost entirely dependent on inter-governmental capital grants. NamWater’s and municipal projects are not transparently resourced, giving rise to concerns regarding lack of implementation and unclear timelines in resolving long term water security challenges. 

It follows that plans and planning exist within an apparent incoherent and ad hoc implementation framework and based on pay-as-you-go on budget availability. As a result, major infrastructure projects have very long lead times. 

Considering that an external water source needs to be in place by 2022, it is unlikely that lead times can be met in the available timeframe. 

An emergency response framework to the 2017/18 drought event is not a sufficient solution to the long-term external water source challenge faced by the central basin. 

We reiterate: “That which should have been done, wasn’t.”  

YANNA SMITH 

** Kosmos 94.1 News Investigates first sent questions to minister Calle Schlettwein via his assistant Esau Mbako on 15 April 2024. Those questions were resent several times, calls were made and WhatsApps were sent to both Mbako and Schlettwein. They remain unanswered on 11 November 2024.